December, 2014 | San Francisco Real Estate Agent

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December 31, 2014

New Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Tick Up a Little

After the feverish spring 2014 market, home prices in the high-price tier – which applies best to San Francisco and Marin counties – flattened and then ticked down a little, while more affordable home segments continued to tick up: It’s not unusual for the market to cool off and plateau during the summer months. The October 2014 Case-Shiller Index just released (on December 30), begins to reflect the autumn selling season, which starts after Labor Day: The market typically begins to heat up again in autumn. (Note that transactions negotiated in September generally start closing in October.)

According to the newest Index, all Bay Area home price segments ticked up in October by about 1%, plus or minus depending on segment. Note that small monthly fluctuations are not particularly meaningful until substantiated over a longer term.

This chart tracks the high-tier-price market since the recovery began in 2012 using Case-Shiller data. The C-S numbers refer to a January 2000 value of “100”, thus 198 signifies a value 98% higher than that of January 2000.

This chart below looks at the last 3 market cycles:

And this chart show median San Francisco house and condo sales prices by quarter (reflecting sales reported by 12/26/14, so it contains newer data than Case-Shiller):

December 30, 2014

Case-Shiller report issued for December

For the last time this year, the Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metro Area has been issued. Paragon has written up its own take on the matter. Remember, the index is published two months after the fact and reflects a three-month rolling average, so this time around it reflects the index for October and is not completely current.

The index covers the housing markets of five Bay Area counties, divided into three price tiers, each constituting a third of unit sales. The majority of San Francisco’s housing stock lies in the high-price tier, so that is where we at Paragon focus most of our attention.

The first two charts that accompany this article are illustrative of the price recovery of the Bay Area’s high-price-tier market over the past year as well as since the beginning of 2012, when the market recovery really began in earnest. Home prices jumped in the spring and then plateaued in the summer and autumn months in both 2012 and 2013. Spring 2013 saw a particularly dramatic surge in spring, which reflects a frenzied market of huge buyer demand as well as historically low interest rates, extremely low inventory and increasing consumer confidence.

The current Case-Shiller report begins to reflect the autumn selling season, which begins just after Labor Day. Typically, we see the market heat up in autumn. Following a feverish spring market, the high-priced tier and then flattened and ticked down a little. Meanwhile, more affordable home segments continued to tick up. That’s not unusual.

According to the index, all Bay Area home price segments went up in October by about 1 percent, plus or minus depending on segment. Keep in mind that small monthly fluctuations aren’t what’s important – it’s the long term that counts.

Looking for specific answers to your real estate needs? Get in touch.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com

December 28, 2014

What’s on tap for 2015?

We’re on the cusp of the calendar flipping to a new year. What will 2015 bring to the real estate market? The National Association of Realtors offers five predictions for the coming year. Let’s give them a look, shall we?

1) Mortgage rates are going to once more head for the sky. With a robust economy behind growth in jobs as well as income, the flip side is that the rates honeymoon has passed and rates are on tap to go back up. According to the Federal Reserve, the federal rates fund (which has a serious if indirect effect on mortgage rates) is going to be increased in 2015. That’s the first time since 2008. “Our forecast for housing assumes the 30-year fixed rate will reach 5 percent by the end of 2015,” NAR chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in a statement. “The one-year adjustable rate will likely rise less if much at all, and accordingly, we are likely to see a shift into more adjustable and hybrid mortgages over fixed.”

2) Millennials are beginning to buy. Those young folk born between 1981 and 2000 are starting to emerge as homebuyers – and, in fact, according to NAR about 65 percent of first-time buyers are in the older millennial group aged 25 to 34. Of those who are buying, an estimated 86 percent are doing so because of a change in family size.

3) Builders will get busy. Smoke said in a statement that housing starts are in a position to pick up the pace and shift in focus. “We are forecasting 16 percent growth in starts, driven now more by growth in single-family starts, which we are expecting to grow 21 percent,” he said. However, single-family construction will be limited by shortages of materials and labor.

4) Credit remains a consideration. Many consumers, particularly younger ones, are prevented from buying a home with a bank loan due to strict qualification standards. The housing market may find itself constrained by this lack of access.

5) The foreclosure crisis is at its end. Foreclosures skyrocketed seven years ago with the burst of the housing bubble, but we’re looking to close that out in 2015, with local variations by area.

Happy 2015!

December 24, 2014

Christmas is almost here – how do I decorate?

If you’re the procrastinating type, you may not be overjoyed to realize that today is Christmas Eve and you still haven’t gussied up your home for the holidays. Fear not. HomeDIT has a few tips for you to make your home beautiful just in the (Saint) Nick of time.

First off, consider including your favorite colors. Why stick with red and green? Skip that and instead try something different when it comes to dressing your Christmas tree. Even if your favorite colors aren’t at all related to the holidays, they will likely make the tree fit better into your home’s decoration. HomeDIT offers violet as one option and turquoise with green accents as another, but you can certainly come up with whatever works for you. Try accessorizing color accents with others used throughout the room. This will create a harmonious blend and help the tree fit in wonderfully.

Second, try playing with shapes and proportions. Make the most of what you have in order to invite the holiday spirit into your home. Make sure the tree fits the room. For example, if you have a low ceiling and not a lot of breathing room, a small Christmas tree will fit the place in a cute, perfect way. Try decorating it with large ornaments as a way of playing with proportions.

Third, take a hint from Scandinavian interior design – and adapt these to your decoration of the Christmas tree. In Scandinavian design, simplicity is everything. That means ditching the sparkly colors and ornaments and instead incorporating white and natural materials. Try also playing with texture and design to adapt the tree to its environment.

Wishing you and yours the happiest of holidays!

December 23, 2014

What did San Francisco homebuyers purchase in 2014?

Paragon has released a year-end report titled “Penthouses, Probates, Lofts, Mansions and Fixer-Uppers: What San Francisco Homebuyers Bought in 2014.” Accompanying this story are a slew of charts used to illustrate Paragon’s findings. To see more, check out the report itself.

Here’s how San Francisco Realtor districts are defined:

District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain

District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights

District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview

District 4 (Central SW): St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands

District 5 (Central): Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights

District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights

District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina

District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin

District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena

District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission

Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as Districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as District 8, which includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.

December 23, 2014

Our take on the Planning Department report

Paragon has analyzed the new 36-page San Francisco Planning Department’s third-quarter pipeline report for both residential and commercial projects and have produced a “Highlights” report of our own.

Something to keep in mind: the construction pipeline includes projects in every stage of the approvals, permits and construction process. Being listed there doesn’t indicate when or even if a given project will reach completion, since changes and additions to the pipeline are ongoing. Big projects are seemingly an everyday announcement lately; economic and political changes alike can also have huge impacts.

A few bullet points we thought worth highlighting:

The current pipeline includes 50,600 residential units: condos, houses and apartments as well as affordable and social-project housing. Far less than 1 percent of the pipeline is made up of houses.
In addition, 18.7 million square feet of commercial space are in the pipeline. This includes office, retail, medical, hospitality, cultural and institutional uses. Of that amount, 12 million square feet are for office use.
The past year has seen 3090 residential units and 280,000 square feet of commercial space added to the pipeline. For these projects, median time to completion from first filing was 43 months. Smaller projects of less than 10,000 square feet saw median times drop to 30 months.
Currently under construction are 6700 new residential units and 5.4 million square feet of commercial space.
A little more than 25,000 of the pipeline’s residential units are comprised of the Bayview/Hunter’s Point Candlestick, ParkMerced and Treasure Island projects.
Most of the rest of the residential as well as commercial pipeline projects are clustered in the greater South Beach/South of Market/Mission Bay areas as well as the Market Street corridor, Potrero Hill/Dogpatch area and the Mission District.
Existing pipeline development threatens approximately 800,000 square feet of manufacturing, distribution and repair use space.

December 22, 2014

San Francisco New Construction/Development Report

Highlights from the Q3 2014 Pipeline Report by the SF Planning Department

December 2014, compiled by Paragon Real Estate Group

On December 19th, the San Francisco Planning Department issued its excellent Q3 2014 Pipeline Report, which tracks new residential and commercial development in the city. There is a wealth of data within its 36 pages: Below is simply an excerpt of some highlights.

The Pipeline includes projects in every stage of the approvals, permits and construction process, and being listed in the pipeline doesn’t indicate when or even if the project will be completed. Changes and additions to the pipeline occur on an ongoing basis: Indeed, it seems rarely a day goes by nowadays without a big new project being announced. Last but not least, changes in economic and political circumstances can suddenly and dramatically impact new development plans and construction.

50,600 residential units are in the current pipeline, including condos, houses and apartments, as well as affordable and social-project housing. Houses constitute far less than 1% of the total units. (There are currently approximately 381,000 housing units in San Francisco, per 2013 U.S. Census data.)

18,700,000 square feet of commercial space are in the pipeline, including office, retail, medical, hotel, cultural, institutional and educational uses. 12 million of the square footage in the pipeline are for office use. (As of 2013, there were approximately 75.6 million square feet of office space in the city.)

3090 residential units and 280,000 square feet of commercial space have been added in the past 4 quarters. “The median time to completion for these projects from the first filing was 43 months.” For smaller projects of less than 10,000 square feet, the median time dropped to 30 months.

6700 new residential units and 5,400,000 square feet of commercial space are currently under construction.

Approximately 25,800 of the pipeline’s residential units are comprised of the Bayview/Hunter’s Point/Candlestick, Park Merced and Treasure Island projects. “Full realization of the projects will be decades into the future.” The Bayview/Candlestick and Treasure Island developments are situated on parcels designated as “Public Land.”

Not counting the 3 big projects mentioned above, the great majority of both residential and commercial pipeline projects are currently clustered in the greater South Beach/South of Market/Mission Bay area, the Market Street corridor, the Potrero Hill/Dogpatch area, and the Mission.

Approximately 800,000 square feet of manufacturing, distribution and repair use space would be lost in the course of existing pipeline development, to be replaced by housing or other commercial uses.

The full Planning Department Pipeline Report can be downloaded here. There’s also a nifty interactive map illustrating projects in the pipeline. Our sincere gratitude to Aksel Olsen and Teresa Ojeda of the SF Planning Department for compiling this useful and comprehensive report.

The first and third charts below come straight from the Planning Department Pipeline Report. We created the two district-breakdown charts to separate out residential and commercial projects and to reflect more common neighborhood and district names as used in the real estate business (but even then, the names should be considered gross generalizations). And we added a snapshot of the Planning Department map to give an idea of the number of development projects in the city.

This snapshot from the interactive map on the Planning Department’s Pipeline report webpage indicates current projects in the greater South Beach/South of Market/Mission Bay district, Hayes Valley and the Market Street corridor.

*All information included herein is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision.

December 20, 2014

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

991 Driver Way
Incline Village, NV
Offered at $1,999,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

December 18, 2014

Where to buy a San Francisco home within your budget

To a large degree, if you’re buying a house in San Francisco, your price range effectively determines the possible neighborhoods to consider. That does not apply quite as much to condos and TICs: Generally speaking, in neighborhoods with high numbers of condo and TIC sales, there are buying options at a wide range of price points, though, obviously, size, quality, view and amenity considerations will come into play.

Accompanying this article you’ll find charts that illustrate:

Where to buy a home for less than $1 million in San Francisco. The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales under $1m in 2014 for each area, while the median sales prices noted — to be as current as possible — are for all house sales in each area in the second half of the year.
Where to buy a home between $1 million and $1.5 million in San Francisco. The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales in each area, while the dollar amounts reflect average dollar per square foot values for the homes in this price range of the specified areas.
House sales in San Francisco.
Where to buy a house (as in, regular old house) between $1.5 million and $2 million in San Francisco.
Where to buy a luxury house in San Francisco. For the sake of this report, houses selling for $2 million and above, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1.5 million and above are designated as luxury home sales. What you get in different neighborhoods for $2 million can vary widely; a large, gorgeous, immaculate house in one place, a fixer-upper in another.
Luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales in San Francisco
Luxury house sales in San Francisco

December 17, 2014

Affordability by San Francisco Neighborhood

Where to Buy a Home in San Francisco for the Money You Want to Spend

To a large degree, if you’re buying a house in San Francisco, your price range effectively determines the possible neighborhoods to consider. That does not apply quite as much to condos and TICs: Generally speaking, in neighborhoods with high numbers of condo and TIC sales, there are buying options at a wide range of price points – though, obviously, size, quality, view and amenity considerations will come into play.

The charts below are based upon transactions reported to MLS for 2014. We’ve generally broken out the neighborhoods with the most sales within given price points. Of course, the era, style, amenities and average size of homes will vary widely between and within neighborhoods.

These charts will be easier to read if you adjust your screenview to zoom 125% or 150%. A San Francisco neighborhood map can be found at the bottom of this report.

Where to Buy a HOUSE for Less than $1 million in San Francisco
The overall median HOUSE price in the city at the end of 2014 was about $1,150,000. The vast majority of house sales under $1,000,000 occur in a large swath of neighborhoods forming a giant L shape, down the west side of the city, from Outer Richmond south through Sunset and Parkside to Ingleside and Oceanview, and then sweeping east across the southern border of San Francisco through Excelsior and Portola to Bayview and Hunter’s Point. The southern border neighborhoods are by far the most affordable house markets in the city. (They don’t contain many condos at this point, though some big developments are planned.)

The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales under $1m in 2014 for each area, while the median sales prices noted – to be as current as possible – are for all house sales in each area in the second half of the year.

Where to Buy a CONDO, CO-OP OR TIC for Under $1 million in San Francisco

The overall SF median condo price at the end of 2014 was about $950,000, so the majority of condo and TIC sales are under $1m. These sales take place in virtually every area of the city that features these property types, but a studio unit in Nob Hill will cost the same as a 1 or 2 bedroom unit in Downtown. Some areas with large volumes of sales, such as South Beach/South of Market or Pacific Heights/Marina, offer units for sale at virtually every price point. In such districts, what will vary will be the prestige and amenities of the building, the size and graciousness of the unit, the floor the unit is located on, whether parking is included, and the existence of views and deeded outside space (decks, patios, or, less often, yards).

In the general category of condo, co-op and TIC sales in San Francisco, condos make up almost 90% of sales, TICs almost 10% and stock co-ops 1 to 2%. TICs typically sell at a significant discount (15% – 25%) to similar condos, but there are a number of factors that affect the exact price differential.

The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales under $1m in 2014 for each area, while the median sales prices noted are for all condo, co-op and TIC sales in each area in the second half of the year.

Spending $1 Million to $1.5 Million

In this price point for houses, one starts moving into the big circle of neighborhoods in the middle of the city plus the Richmond District in the northwest. Within this collection of neighborhoods, one will typically get more house for one’s money in the Sunset, Parkside or Outer Richmond than in Miraloma Park, Bernal Heights or Glen Park – and much more than in neighborhoods such as Noe and Eureka Valleys.

In the charts below, the horizontal columns reflect the number of sales in each area, while the dollar amounts reflect average dollar per square foot values for the homes in this price range in the specified areas.

Condo, co-op and TIC sales in this price range are mostly concentrated in those areas where newer (and expensive) condo developments have come on market – and continue to arrive in increasing numbers – over the last 10 years, as well as, of course, in high-end neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights & Russian Hill, and Noe, Cole & Eureka Valleys.

Dollar per square foot values can be affected by a wide variety of factors, including size: All things being equal, larger condos sell at lower dollar per square prices than smaller units. The greater Cole Valley area condos in this price range average over 1460 square feet (think: large, gracious, Edwardian flats), while South Beach condos in this price segment average about 1225 square feet (newer, modern, high-tech, often high-rise). That is part of the reason for the discrepancy in dollar per square foot values between these two areas.

Buying a HOUSE for $1.5 million to $2 million

As the price range goes up, the number of sales begin to narrow. House sales in this price segment predominate in the central Realtor District 5, the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys area; District 4, the St. Francis Wood-Forest Hill-West Portal area; and District 1, Richmond-Lone Mountain-Lake Street. District 5 is the most expensive district for home sales in this price range, as can be seen in the average dollar per square foot values.

Buying a LUXURY HOME in San Francisco

For the sake of this report, houses selling for $2 million and above, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1.5 million and above are designated as luxury home sales. What you get in different neighborhoods for $2 million can vary widely – a large, gorgeous, immaculate house in one place, a fixer-upper in another.

Luxury home sales in San Francisco are dominated by the swath of established, prestige northern neighborhoods running from Sea Cliff through Pacific Heights and Russian Hill to Telegraph Hill, by the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district, and, to a lesser extent, the smaller neighborhoods around St. Francis Wood. For luxury condos, the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay area has a large and growing presence as big, dramatic, expensive condo projects have sprouted there over the past 15 years.

Luxury CONDO, CO-OP & TIC Sales

As one can see below, no area has more luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales overall than the Pacific Heights-Marina district, but the South Beach-Yerba Buena area is the fastest growing luxury condo market and will probably take first position in the not too distant future due to continuing new construction. The average dollar per square foot values for luxury condos in the major neighborhoods run $1001 in the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys district, $1049 in the Pacific Heights-Marina district, $1195 in the Russian-Nob-Telegraph Hills district, and $1328 in the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena area (think: new, luxury, high-floor units with spectacular views). For the absolute best units, dollar per square foot values can exceed $2000.

Luxury HOUSE Sales

It wasn’t so long ago that houses selling in Realtor District 5, the greater Noe/Eureka/Cole Valleys area (which includes Clarendon, Corona and Ashbury Heights), for over $2 million were outliers. But that is not the case any longer – now, extremely wealthy people (such as Mark Zuckerberg) are buying homes here. Still for the time being, the very highest end of the luxury house market continues to be dominated by Realtor District 7, the Pacific & Presidio Heights-Marina area (which is generally home to the largest mansions in the city). There are several other significant areas for these large, expensive houses, such as Lake Street/Sea Cliff/Jordan Park, St. Francis Wood/Forest Hill and Lower Pacific Heights.

Note that dollar per square foot values vary widely between these districts.

Median Prices for 2-Bedroom Condos and 3-4 Bedroom Houses
in Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods

Distribution of House Sales by Sales Price

This chart breaks down 2014 San Francisco houses sales by sales price segment in $250,000 increments: the $750,000 to $1,000,000 segment (dark green column) had the most sales — the median house sales price over the entire period was approximately $1,060,000.

Distribution of Condo & TIC Sales by Sales Price

The largest number of condo, co-op and TIC sales in San Francisco over this 12 month period was also in the $750,000 to $1,000,000 price segment (dark green column) — the median condo sales price over the period was approximately $950,000. Median sales prices of houses and condos in San Francisco have been converging lately as new construction condos – now coming on the market in increasing quantities – raise overall values.

San Francisco Neighborhood Map

SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS

District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain

District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights

District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview

District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights

District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina

District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin

District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch (Central Waterfront), Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena

District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission

Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which, for example, includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.

CECE BLASE (DRE 00926690) Direct: 415.577.0809 cece@sfrealestatebuzz.com

CECE BLASE
(DRE 00926690)
Direct: 415.577.0809
cece@sfrealestatebuzz.com