This Weekend: “Mr. Burns”

If you’re a “Simpsons” fan, you’re in for a treat this weekend courtesy of the American Conservatory Theater. Billed as an outrageous and enthusiastically acclaimed new comedy by Anne Washburn, “Mr. Burns” revolves around a post-apocalyptic Bay Area and a group of strangers bound together through a recreation of the show’s infamous “Cape Feare” episode. In case you’ve forgotten, Bart grows paranoid after receiving death threats and ends up coming face to face with the nefarious Sideshow Bob, who is ultimately apprehended by the police.

In the play, the basis for shaping a new society grows from recollections of Marge as well as Homer as the play travels decades into the future. It is hailed as both a marvelous meta-tribute to the twenty-first century’s iconic first family of pop culture and a celebration to the power of generational storytelling. (San Francisco Chronicle.)

The New York Times applauded “Mr. Burns” as “a post-electric play (that) has arrived to leave you dizzy with the scope and dazzle of its ideas. Ms. Washburn makes us appreciate anew the profound value of storytelling in and of itself, and makes a case for theater as the most glorious and durable storyteller of all.” In addition, the Village Voice crowed: “Washburn reminds us of the ways stories survive and adapt with us, how their specifics and lessons change to the society that tells them, how their meaning is inconstant but our need for that meaning, whatever it happens to be at a given time, is pure and permanent. From hell, Mr. Burns sends us to heaven.”

How can you resist? “Mr. Burns” runs on Sunday, March 1 at 2 p.m. The ACT’s Geary Theater is located at 405 Geary Street in San Francisco.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com

December Case-Shiller reflects plateauing home values … for now

Recently the December 2014 Case-Shiller Index was released, showing a general flattening of home values from the end of the 2014 spring market through year’s-end. We seem to be looking at another feverish spring market this year, which in turn typically translates to another burst of home-price appreciation.

The accompanying chart reflects the Bay Area house markets’ high-price tier, which is generally seen in most of the San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo markets. A few highlights from the notes on the chart:

· Spring has been the season of greatest appreciation for the last three years

· Bay Area homes in the upper third of the price range appreciated 9.3 percent in the past 12 months

· Prices have appreciated about 43 percent since the market recovery began in early 2012.

Meanwhile, home prices, as shown in the data released in the report, are on an uptick nationwide. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites reflected year-over-year increases in December as compared to November, with the 20-City Composite jumping 4.5 percent year-over-year as compared to a 4.3 percent increase in November.

San Francisco saw the fastest year-over-year gain with its 9.3 percent rise, followed by Miami at 8.4 percent. Twelve cities, including Cleveland, Denver and Seattle, also saw faster price increases in December than in November.

As for declines, Las Vegas led the pack with 6.9 percent in increases, down from 7.7 percent annually.

“The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence,” S&P Dow Jones Indices managing director and index committee chairman David Blitzer said in a statement.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com

Renting vs Buying a Home in San Francisco

“Renting can make sense as a lifestyle choice or because of income constraints.
As a means to building wealth, however, there is no practical substitute for homeownership.”

New York Times, “Homeownership & Affluence,” 11/30/14 op-ed article

Please Note: Rent vs. buy calculations can be performed a wide variety of ways, and results will depend on your own financial circumstances and economic projections, which you should review with your accountant. The below calculations represent simply one scenario.

This rent vs. buy analysis compares the monthly housing cost of buying a San Francisco home at the Q4 2014 median sales price of $1,050,000 – adjusting for tax deductions and principal pay-down of the mortgage – with the cost of renting a San Francisco 2-bedroom apartment at the Q4 2014 median asking rent of approximately $4500/month (per Rentbits.com). It also attempts to compare, while adjusting for inflation and other factors, projected asset appreciation between investing the downpayment monies (instead of buying a home) and using them in one’s home purchase.

Assumptions: 20% down-payment ($210,000); 30-year fixed-rate loan at an APR of 4%; and closing costs; property taxes; ongoing insurance and maintenance costs; annual inflation (2%), outside investment returns (3% after taxes) and home appreciation rates (5%) – all at what seem to us to be reasonable projections. We’ve used a combined income tax rate of 25% for the mortgage interest and property tax deduction. But especially when projecting variable economic factors over long periods of time, many of these figures will simply be best guesstimates. You may perform calculations based upon your own specific financial situation and future projections, and also see the definitions for all the terms used in this analysis here:

Rent vs. Buy Calculator

The New York Times also has a rent vs. buy calculator:

NYT Rent vs. Buy Calculator

If you wished to perform this analysis comparing a 1-bedroom apartment rental with a 1-bedroom condo purchase, the median San Francisco asking rent would be approximately $3300 to $3400 per month, and the median purchase price in Q4 2014 was about $740,000. Interestingly, the ratio of median asking rent to median purchase price is almost exactly the same as in the scenario used above. If you currently have an SF apartment under rent control, you can still use the calculator, plugging in your current rent – annual increases in rents allowed under SF rent control are typically about 60% of the CPI inflation rate.

Other articles you might find interesting:

When Is the Time to Buy?

Home Buying as an Investment

10 Factors behind the San Francisco Market

What are the Bay Area median house prices?

We at Paragon have updated our Bay Area median house price map to reflect the last six months of sales reported to the Multiple Listing Service. The map, which accompanies this article, covers everything from Healdsburg and Santa Rosa to the north to Atherton and Woodside at points south and even touches on New York City, which, in case you were wondering, boasts a $1.22 million median price for houses, condos and co-ops.

Here are a few local highlights from the map:

· San Francisco (all): $1.1 million

· Pacific Heights: $4.1 million

· Noe Valley: $1.9 million

· Central Sunset: $1 million

· Tiburon: $2.36 million

· Belvedere: $3.5 million

· Sausalito: $1.41 million

· Berkeley: $918,000

· Oakland (all): $520,000

· Piedmont: $1.8 million

· Daly City: $700,000

· Hayward: $431,000

· San Mateo: $1.09 million

· Redwood City: $1.18 million

· Menlo Park: $1.94 million

However, according to DataQuick, Bay Area January home sales were the slowest in seven years. While this is seasonally appropriate, it’s still a statistic that’s worth noting. A total of 4,439 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the Bay Area’s central nine counties in January, down month over month by 40.5 percent from 7,456 sales in December 2014 and also down year over year by 5.5 percent from 4,696 sales in January 2014. This has become a trend – Bay Area sales have averaged a nearly 30 percent (specifically, 28.5 percent drop between the months of December and January since 1988, which is when DataQuick began tracking.

The lowest prior to this January was in 2008, at the time of the recession. The peak for January home sales took place three years earlier with the sale of just under 8,300 homes.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com

How high? How far?

Recently I said that a shortage of inventory was driving prices up again. This week, I want to actually show you sample properties that sold well above their listing price.

This sampling represents a variety of locations and property styles. To make this topic appealing to all, we are generally sticking with better-known neighborhoods. If you would like information on selling versus list prices in parts of the city such as west of Twin Peaks or over by Ocean Avenue, email me and I’ll be happy to send you information on how property is selling in those neighborhoods.

The address links take you to online presentations from our local MLS. I’m afraid it’s not the sexiest format out there, but it seems only fair to create a level playing field for how the homes show up on your computer screen. You also avoid getting seduced by fancy moving images or weird music that comes on at inappropriate times.

Examples of selling prices far exceeding listing prices this year are:

707 3rd Avenue

A gracious 3BR/1.5 Edwardian house with a fancy remodeled kitchen, lots of period detail and expansion potential.This Inner Richmond location is a popular alternative for buyers wanting a larger single family but are priced out of neighborhoods like Noe Valley. On a great, close-in block, this home is also walking distance to Golden Gate Park.

Listed for $1,495,000

Sold for $1,827,000

40 Joost Avenue

A smaller 2BR/1.5BA single family home that is characteristic of the Sunnyside neighborhood. Buyers are discovering Sunnyside as it offers smaller, more affordable houses and good proximity to the Glen Park BART and the freeways. This home was owned for many years by a well-known cabinet maker, but he also seemed to be a fan of tile work as well. . .

Listed for $899,000

Sold for $1,110,000

763 Chenery

This single family 3BR/2BA “checked all the boxes” on a home-shopper’s list. It had the look of a quintessential, San Francisco peaked-roof Victorian with the added boost of being just steps away from Glen Park Village shops, BART and the on-ramp to the 280 Freeway. The combination kitchen-family room communicated directly with the back yard. The only small downside is a division of bedrooms between the top and lower levels.

Listed for $1,749,000

Sold for $2,250,019

353 Park Street

Another classic 2BR/1.5BA peaked roof Victorian house, just steps away from Holly Park on Bernal Heights’ south slope.

If you’ve never been to Holly Park, it’s time for a visit. This is a magical little spot close by Mission Street and not too far from Cortland. Like many Bernal homes, this one had a slightly awkward floor plan, but it was easy to see what needed to be corrected and how.

Listed for $1,025,000

Sold for $1,400,000

355 Buena Vista Avenue #701W

1BR condo in the Park Hill complex. Park Hill is another place worth visiting if you’ve never been, with beautiful, gracious architecture in a stunning setting directly across from Buena Vista Park and just up the hill from the Haight Ashbury. This particular unit was on the top floor, extensively redone and showed like a dream. Even so, the selling price one was jaw-dropping since sales in the building over the past six months have been in the $640,000-730,000 range.

Listed for $899,000

Sold for $1,100,000

942 Treat Avenue

Victorian 1BR/1.5BA condo-flat that was “dripping with period character” (not my words). The lower bedroom/bath count is compensated by 1000+ square feet with a formal dining room, large eat-in kitchen, back deck and common yard hot tub. This home has parking but it’s tandem, which means you have to have your neighbors keys and park end-to-end. If you look at the photos, make sure to go all the way to the last one to see some exterior “misguided improvements” made by former owners years ago. This property is in the heart of the Mission District.

Listed for $779,000

Sold for $940,000

138-140 Eureka

Classic 4U Edwardian building with one-bedroom Romeo style flats. We call this particular style of building “Romeo,” perhaps because windows in the central stairway offer some romance as they overlook the street. Inside each front door, you are greeted by a long hall feeding into a series of rooms. This layout holds appeal for some because there is depth to the floor plan and you can’t see all of the living space at one time. Great Castro Village location within walking distance to everything. All tenant-occupied with monthly rents ranging from about $1,250 to just north of $2,950.

Listed for $1,499,000

Sold for $1,808,625

342-A Hayes Street
2BR/2.5BA townhome with a stellar WalkScore location in the heart of Hayes Valley. Built in 1996, it had a crisp, contemporary feel with pleasant treetop outlooks. Smaller square footage was overcome by extra tall ceilings and a two-level floor plan. Separate master suites broadened the home’s appeal to Millennials who might want a roommate. Having restaurants and coffee shops like Arlequin, Absinthe, Sugar Lounge and Blue Bottle Coffee just outside the front door didn’t hurt either.

Listed for $1,050,000

Sold for $1,310,000

2931-A Fillmore
Unique 2BR/2BA condo in a superb Cow Hollow location just half-a-block above Union Street. The building also has some distinctive architectural features with an unusual double-arched façade. Inside, the home’s vaulted ceilings, skylights and a loft level must have made it seem like a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Extra perks were parking and an outdoor deck with views to the Golden Gate. This home wins our prize for going furthest over at 139% of list price.

Listed for $1,385,000

Sold for $1,925,000

I have chosen extreme examples, but overbidding is happening nearly every time in this market. To give it some statistical context, only six out of the last 31 properties to sell over the past two weeks sold at or below asking, with the biggest “bargain” selling for 93% of its listing price.

So what can we learn?

Two conclusions to draw:

1. If you’re a buyer, do your online searches at listing prices below your price range. Roughly half of all houses sell within the first thirty days for an average 140%over asking. The median is less frightening- about 120% for single families and 110% for condos. But this still means that if your price range is up to $1,200,000 for a single family you might want to look at new listings priced no higher than $999,000.
2. If you’re a seller and have a “make-me-move” price, you might want to call us to see if the market can match it. Keep in mind that your Zillow estimate may be inaccurate, especially in neighborhoods like Potrero Hill, where prices can vary dramatically block-to-block (I’ve seen them Zillow estimate too low as often as I have too high). Your property’s “hotness” will also depend on its rarity. Certain neighborhoods, like Hayes Valley, have a dearth of inventory right now and anything near Dolores Park remains highly coveted. We are also seeing a resurgence of interest in condos in the City’s classic Northern District, like Pacific Heights and Russian Hill. All of San Francisco is a hot commodity right now, however, regardless of location. So if you want to know what your home is worth today, please feel free to get in touch.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com

This Weekend: Remodeling workshop in Sebastopol

If you’re looking for an excuse for a day trip this weekend, you’ve found it. On Saturday, Feb. 21, the Leff Design Center at 2661 Gravenstein Highway South, Suite B, in Sebastopol is hosting a workshop entitled “Guide to a Successful Remodeling Project: Navigating Design and Selections”. Located just three miles south of quirky downtown Sebastopol, the Leff Design Center is known for its always-free, always-fun workshops complete with snacks.

Saturday’s workshop tackles the difficult issue of remodeling your home, an endeavor that entails literally hundreds of decisions before the project is complete. Rather than let the process be daunting, come to the Leff Design Center at 10 a.m. to learn how to make the best decisions possible while planning your project along with gaining a more complete understanding of the different ways to approach the remodeling process as a whole rather than becoming intimidated by the parts.

So what will you learn? Here are a few bits of knowledge with which you can expect to walk away after the workshop:

· The careful planning involved in a beautiful remodeling and the most effective steps that will get you there

· The design process from the beginning part of developing a concept to the end stage of selecting finish materials

· The confidence to know that you too can do it – and survive!

Since space is limited, advance registration is required. You can register online or by calling Leff Design Center at (707) 823-4899. The Leffs have been in business since 1978, so they speak from experience. Don’t miss this unique opportunity.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com

When a flip doubles a home’s price

Welcome to the Outer Richmond, where the restoration of a 1913 Craftsman resulted in a dramatic jump in price. Specifically, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, it doubled the home’s value without substantially adding square footage.

The home, located at 542 35th Avenue, first hit the market in October 2013, having been with the same family since 1988. At the time, the spacious five-bedroom, four and one-half bathroom single-family residence needed work inside and out. That said, the 3,100-square-foot home sold two months later largely due to its excellent location adjacent to the shops and restaurants on Balboa. The sales price at the time was $1.05 million.

Then came a year of intense renovation. The owner-developers installed hardwood floors and upgraded the main entertaining floor along with removing one bedroom and bathroom to add space to the other ones. The backyard was freshly landscaped and large glass sliders as well as a deck that were added off the back of the family room, providing better yard access.

So how did this translate to price? With the upgrades and an extra 400 square feet gained by ground-floor development, the property went back on the market for $2.245 million. As the Chron notes, while the asking price more than doubled the previous sale price, the per-square-foot cost of $628 is now in line with the neighborhood. “It may even be a bit of a bargain,” writer Emily Landes asserted, “considering that many homes in the area are in need of some updates. Now it just remains to be seen if all those new bells and whistles will get a buyer to bite.”

What do you think?

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com

New homes command the most cash in SF

San Franciscans love their vintage homes, but it’s the new stuff that takes top dollar. New construction also often means more expensive as most developers are still seeking to squeeze as many units as possible into their building envelope.

So what does this do? Well, for one, it makes the average two-bedroom in a new high-rise often much smaller than a two-bedroom in an older Edwardian or Victorian building. We’re seeing some developers bucking that trend as they realize the price per square foot can increase dramatically for particularly large homes in buildings such as the Millennium or smaller boutique projects such as 650 2nd Street, where condos that span half an entire floor can command upwards of $1500 per square foot.

The accompanying chart is a reworking of one we at Paragon did last spring. One thing of note is that all things being equal (which they rarely are), the smaller the unit, the more extravagant the dollar per square foot. Over the past century, average unit sizes have seen a steady decline. However, other issues are also at play, including construction quality and appeal and the location where a certain era’s type of buildings were mostly constructed.

We’ve also created a new chart that illustrates the general decline in new housing that has been added to the city’s supply over the past 40 years. There was a surge during the first decade of the 2000s and then a precipitous drop from 2008 to 2012. And where are we right now? In the beginning stages of yet another surge. Stay tuned.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com