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Newly Released Case-Shiller Index

The new S&P Case-Shiller Index for August was just released this week. The prices for homes in the upper third of prices – which dominate in most of San Francisco, central and southern Marin, and central Contra Costa – ticked down a tiny bit in summer, exactly as they did last summer. These short-term fluctuations are common and not particularly meaningful until substantiated by a longer-term trend.

Since Case-Shiller’s SF Metro Area covers 5 counties, it should be noted that not all the markets within the Area move in lockstep: activity and appreciation rates can vary significantly.

As is clearly illustrated below, for the past 4 years, spring has been the big driver of home-price appreciation. Prices generally plateau in subsequent seasons until the next spring arrives. For the past couple years, the spring selling season has started very early, in late January or early February, due to the incredible weather we’ve had in those months. El Niňo, if it arrives, might move the spring pick-up in sales back to mid-March/early April in 2016.

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This second chart illustrates the huge burst in prices this past spring. It’s not unusual for the market to slump a little during the summer holidays, almost in exhaustion after the spring frenzy. We’ll have more autumn statistics soon when October’s MLS data comes in, but Paragon has been experiencing its most active autumn selling season in its history in 2015.

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And here are 3 longer-term charts for each of the 3 Case-Shiller price tiers for the 5-county San Francisco metro statistical area. As can be seen, the different price tiers had bubbles and crashes of radically different magnitudes in 2006 – 2009, but as far as total appreciation since the year 2000, all of them display very similar appreciation rates.

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Farm Fresh To You announces a wider variety of farm products for delivery

Farm Fresh To You, a local organic farm delivery service, announced this week that they have expanded their packages to include a variety of over 100 farm products to their customers. The box subscription service is helping other local farmers market their goods in a new way.

“Farm Fresh To You’s farm product add-on service is helping us get our products to the market in a new way,” said Jim Etters, director of land management, Seka Hills. “We sell olive oil, honey and vinegar through their delivery service, and our orders are increasing monthly. Farm Fresh To You has the same commitment to quality and sustainability that Seka Hills does, and we value this local partnership.”

How does the service work? Farm Fresh To You Customers select which size box of produce they wish to have delivered: small, medium, or large. There are several types of boxes and the boxes are customizable. Customers can then choose to have the goods delivered to their home or to their office.

Founded in 1992, Farm Fresh To You delivers produce to major metropolitan areas in California including the San Francisco Bay Area, the greater Sacramento region, greater Los Angeles, and several other counties.

“Farm Fresh To You members can now customize their boxes to choose the produce they want from our seasonal selection,” said Thaddeus Barsotti, farmer and co-CEO, Farm Fresh To You. “Many farms also make specialty food items and other farm products, and we decided our customers would love the ability to add these products to their delivery service.”

Farm products for sale through the Farm Fresh To You website include apple juice, applesauce, chili sauce, crackers, coffee, dried fruit, dried mushrooms, dried pasta, dry beans, eggs, flowers, granola, jams, maple syrup, mustard, nuts, olive oils, rice, seasonings, specialty flours, specialty salt, tomato sauce, vinegars, wreaths and yarn. The site also offers gift packages or subscriptions, which for the hard to buy for may be an excellent option for this holiday season. This 2nd generation owned family farm is dedicated to helping those in the area enjoy premium healthy produce right at their doorstep.

From our NorCal network : The Artisan Group

13345569

68 LAKEVIEW AVENUE
Zephyr Cove NV, 89448
Offered at $3,995,000

For more information about this property or a referral to other areas of Northern California, please contact me.

Tech company Pillow expands to offer more rentals in surrounding areas

Home rentals are hot, and just one short year after their launch Pillow is expanding into Southern California. Pillow is a tech-driven company and currently the U.S.’s largest urban vacation rental manager. They developed a communal market for people looking to rent out their homes. Their system simplifies the process for all parties involved in the home rental.

Currently, Pillow only manages rentals in California and Washington State with areas in and around the cities, San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles, and Seattle. New cities include Universal City and North Hollywood; Hermosa, Manhattan, and Redondo Beaches; Long Beach, Newport, and Irvine; and Palm Springs. The goal is to have this expansion completed by the beginning of November.

How does Pillow differ from Airbnb? Pillow ensures the home renters that the process will be simple. All potential renters will be screened before booking the home. All reviews through the booking channel will be taken into consideration. If a person does not have enough reviews the company will interview the person to check if they would be a good fit for the home they are looking to rent.

“We’re bringing the predictability and consistency of the hotel world to the unique and heart-felt individuality of home-rentals,” said Pillow CEO Sean Conway. “We’re here to make vacation home rental hassle-free and profitable for every homeowner.”

Pillow handles all rental bookings, key transfers, and cleaning and maintenance of the property all while maintaining communication with both parties involved. For people considering opening their property up for rentals, this company makes the process as simple as possible. If something is not left how the homeowners left it, Pillow urges them to reach out to the company and they will fix any problems. Pillow still recommends renters to have a Homesharing Liability Insurance.

The market expansion is accompanied by increased growth within the company and the availability of new services. Pillow recently introduced a free appraisal service – the first of its kind in the industry, which allows any homeowner to see an estimate of how much rental income they can expect from their vacation home. Pillow’s proprietary algorithm, which factors in 85 different criteria including location, number of bedrooms, and amenities, is able to accurately predict both occupancy and monthly rental income. The market expansion is sizable, expecting to open in 10 U.S. cities within the next year. For more information be sure to visit Pillow and find out how to get started.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for San Francisco Metro Area

The S&P Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metro Area covers the house markets of 5 Bay Area counties, divided into 3 price tiers, each constituting one third of unit sales. Most of San Francisco’s, Marin’s and Central Contra Costa’s house sales are in the “high price tier”, so that is where we focus most of our attention.” The Index is published 2 months after the month in question and reflects a 3-month rolling average, so it will always reflect the market of some months ago. The Index for July 2015 was released on the last Tuesday of September. In 2014, after a torrid spring selling season, the market plateaued during the summer and autumn, and a similar trend seems to be developing in 2015 as well, after its own white hot spring.

The 5 counties in our Case-Shiller Metro Statistical Area are San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa. Needless to say, there are many different real estate markets found in such a broad region, and it’s fair to say that the city of San Francisco’s market has generally out-performed the general metro-area market.

The first two charts illustrate the price recovery of the Bay Area high-price-tier home market over the past year and since 2012 began, when the market recovery really started in earnest. In 2012, 2013, 2014 and now 2015, home prices have dramatically surged in the spring (often then plateauing or even ticking down a little in the following seasons). The surges in prices that have occurred in the spring selling seasons reflect frenzied markets of huge buyer demand, historically low interest rates and extremely low inventory. In San Francisco itself, it was further exacerbated by a rapidly expanding population and the high-tech-fueled explosion of new, highly-paid employment and new wealth creation.

For more regarding how seasonality affects real estate: Seasonality & the Real Estate Market

Case-Shiller Index numbers all reflect home prices as compared to the home price of January 2000, which has been designated with a value of 100. Thus, a reading of 218 signifies home prices 118% above the price of January 2000.

Short-Term Trends: 12 Months & Since Market Recovery Began in 2012

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Longer-Term Trends & Cycles

The third and fourths charts below reflect what has occurred in the longer term (for the high-price tier that applies best to San Francisco and Marin counties), showing the cycle of recession, recovery, bubble, decline/recession since 1996, and since 1988. Note that, past cycle changes will always look smaller than more recent cycles because the prices are so much higher now; if the chart reflected only percentage changes between points, the difference in the scale of cycles would not look so dramatic.

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Different Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries

This next 3 charts compare the 3 different price tiers since 1988. The low-price-tier’s bubble was much more inflated, fantastically inflated, by the subprime lending fiasco – an absurd 170% appreciation over 6 years – which led to a much greater crash (foreclosure/distressed property crisis) than the other two price tiers. All 3 tiers have been undergoing dramatic recoveries, but because the bubbles of the low and middle tiers were greater, their recoveries leave them below – a little bit for the mid-price-tier and well below for the low-price-tier – their artificially inflated peak values of 2006. It may be a long time before the low-price-tier of houses regains its previous peak values. The high-price-tier, with a much smaller bubble, and little affected by distressed property sales, has now significantly exceeded its previous peak values of 2007. Most neighborhoods in the city of San Francisco itself have now surpassed previous peak values by very substantial margins.

It’s interesting to note that despite the different scales of their bubbles, crashes and recoveries, all three price tiers now basically show the same overall appreciation rate when compared to year 2000. As of July 2015, Case-Shiller puts all 3 price tiers at 118% – 119% over year 2000 prices. This suggests an equilibrium is being achieved across the general real estate market.

Different counties, cities and neighborhoods in the Bay Area are dominated by different price tiers though, generally speaking, you will find all 3 tiers represented in different degrees in each county. Bay Area counties such as Alameda, Contra Costa, Napa, Sonoma and Solano have large percentages of their markets dominated by low-price tier homes (though, again, all tiers are represented to greater or lesser degrees). San Francisco, Marin, Central Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties are generally mid and high-price tier markets, and sometimes very high priced indeed. Generally speaking, the higher the price, the smaller the bubble and crash, and the greater the recovery as compared to previous peak values.

Remember that if a price drops by 50%, then it must go up by 100% to make up the loss: loss percentages and gain percentages are not created equal.

The numbers in the charts refer to January Case-Shiller Index readings, except for the last as labeled..

Low-Price Tier Homes: Under $579,500 as of 7/15

Huge subprime bubble (170% appreciation, 2000 – 2006) & huge crash (60% decline, 2008 – 2011). Strong recovery but still well below 2006-07 peak values.

5

Mid-Price Tier Homes: $579,500 to $949,000 as of 7/15

Smaller bubble (119% appreciation, 2000 – 2006) and crash (42% decline) than low-price tier. As of July 2015, a strong recovery has put it back up to its previous 2006 peak.

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High-Price Tier Homes: Over $949,000 as of 7/15

84% appreciation, 2000 – 2007, and 25% decline, peak to bottom.
Now climbing well above previous 2007 peak values.

7

In San Francisco, where many neighborhoods vastly exceed the initial price threshold for the high-price tier, declines from peak values in 2007 in those more expensive neighborhoods typically ran 15% – 20%, and appreciation over previous peak value has also exceeded the high-price tier norm.

San Francisco, Marin and Central Contra Costa

And then looking just at the city of San Francisco itself, which has, generally speaking, among the highest home prices in the 5-county metro area (and the country): many of its neighborhoods are now blowing past previous peak values. Note that this chart has more recent price appreciation data than available in the Case-Shiller Indices. This chart shows both house and condo values, while the C-S charts used above are for house sales only. Median prices are affected by other factors besides changes in values, including seasonality, new construction projects hitting the market, inventory available to purchase, and significant changes in the distressed and luxury home segments.

8

Marin County

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Central Contra Costa County

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And this chart for the Noe and Eureka Valleys neighborhoods of San Francisco shows the explosive recovery seen in many of the city’s neighborhoods, pushing home values far above those of 2007. Noe and Eureka Valleys have become particularly prized by the high-tech buyer segment and the effect on prices has been astonishing.

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All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Short-term fluctuations are less meaningful than longer term trends. All numbers should be considered approximate.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group

RushTix is a new affordable subscription for local events in the bay area

RushTix was just launched for the San Francisco Bay Area, and they plan to disrupt your streaming relationship with your smart tv. The San Francisco area is well known for its artistic culture throughout the country. Despite the numerous live shows that occur within the city, more people are watching the shows on television rather than attending the live event. Enter RushTix and an affordable way to turn couch potatoes into social butterflies. With RushTix’s subscription plan, residents will pay a flat monthly rate that will give them unlimited tickets to local events.

We’re offering the Starter Pass at a ridiculously low entry point because it is actually more ridiculous that great local shows are not selling out.

-Founder and CEO of the brand, Jill Bourque.

A wide range of events are offered each month. Live performances are the most common events offered, but there are also tickets for festivals, wine tastings, and museum activities. Members can also suggest other types of events they would like to have offered as well. New events are added to the list every day in order to give members the most opportunities and options possible.

RushTix is a membership ran program, enrollment into RushTix is limited and only offered periodically for this reason.. Members create a username and password for the website to check the lists of available events that are updated and posted everyday at 11am. RushTix limits membership because they only receive a certain number of tickets from various events for distribution, once all the tickets are claimed they can not offer any more for that particular event. Usually, tickets become available the week of the event.

The majority of the tickets are for Thursday-Sunday events, but there are exceptions. Depending on the level of membership a person has, they are able to “gift” their tickets to friends if they are unable to attend the event themselves. There are three membership levels to accommodate different lifestyle needs. Cancellation of the membership is possible at any point, and there is not a long-term commitment upon joining.

This is the first pass created that offers tickets to unlimited cultural and art events for a flat monthly rate. After expanding in the San Francisco Bay Area, they plan to extend to other cities across the county. For more information, go to Rushtix to see everything they offer.

RushTix is a new affordable subcription for local events in the bay area

RushTix was just launched for the San Francisco Bay Area, and they plan to disrupt your streaming relationship with your smart tv. The San Francisco area is well known for its artistic culture throughout the country. Despite the numerous live shows that occur within the city, more people are watching the shows on television rather than attending the live event. Enter RushTix and an affordable way to turn couch potatoes into social butterflies. With RushTix’s subscription plan, residents will pay a flat monthly rate that will give them unlimited tickets to local events.

We’re offering the Starter Pass at a ridiculously low entry point because it is actually more ridiculous that great local shows are not selling out.

-Founder and CEO of the brand, Jill Bourque.

A wide range of events are offered each month. Live performances are the most common events offered, but there are also tickets for festivals, wine tastings, and museum activities. Members can also suggest other types of events they would like to have offered as well. New events are added to the list every day in order to give members the most opportunities and options possible.

RushTix is a membership ran program, enrollment into RushTix is limited and only offered periodically for this reason.. Members create a username and password for the website to check the lists of available events that are updated and posted everyday at 11am. RushTix limits membership because they only receive a certain number of tickets from various events for distribution, once all the tickets are claimed they can not offer any more for that particular event. Usually, tickets become available the week of the event.

The majority of the tickets are for Thursday-Sunday events, but there are exceptions. Depending on the level of membership a person has, they are able to “gift” their tickets to friends if they are unable to attend the event themselves. There are three membership levels to accommodate different lifestyle needs. Cancellation of the membership is possible at any point, and there is not a long-term commitment upon joining.

This is the first pass created that offers tickets to unlimited cultural and art events for a flat monthly rate. After expanding in the San Francisco Bay Area, they plan to extend to other cities across the county. For more information, go to Rushtix to see everything they offer.

The San Francisco Fall Antiques Show // Benefiting Enterprise for High School Students

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The San Francisco Fall Antiques Show, now in its 34th year, is the oldest and most prestigious art and antiques fair on the West Coast. Held at Fort Mason each fall, the FAS presents 60 of the finest art and antiques dealers from around the world and is fully vetted by the vetting committee, organized in cooperation with the Antiques Dealers Association of California (ADAC). It is a must-see destination show for collectors and enthusiasts of art, antiques and design.

Objects exhibited and sold on the show floor span the ages, from antiquity through the 20th Century, covering genres including Fine Art, Modern Art, Furniture, Textiles, Photography, Asian Art, Carpets, Ceramics, Porcelain, Sculpture, Rare Books, Works on Paper, Objets d’art, Jewelry and Metals.

The 4-day show offers the opportunity to immerse yourself in the world of great art and antiques with programming each day, including The Lecture Series, featuring 6 prominent speakers over 3 days, show tours, talks, designer events and the Young Collectors Evening.

The Fall Antiques Show opening night Preview Gala has been called “the highlight of the San Francisco Social Season” and opens the show with live music, caviar and vodka bars, flowing champagne, sumptuous buffets and the first glimpse of the best art and antiques from around the world, all available for purchase.

Please Visit Eventbrite for More Details

HERO Financing allows homeowners to make green home improvements affordably

Homeowners have more opportunities than ever to improve their homes with energy efficient and eco-friendly upgrades thanks to HERO Financing. PACE (property assessed clean energy) is a program developed through HERO (home energy renovation opportunity). The program helps homeowners become more energy efficient and reduce pollution emissions. Eligibility for the program or products varies depending on the applicant’s location.This program is currently being offered in 352 communities throughout California.

On September 22, 2015, HERO announced program availability in 25 additional communities, making HERO accessible to 360,000 additional housing units across California! This includes 23 cities and two counties. With this latest addition, 78% of Golden State households can now use HERO to lower their utility bills while helping the environment.

To date, HERO has funded more than 42,500 residential energy efficiency, renewable, and water conservation projects, totaling more than $846 million in financing, and has helped to create more than 7,000 California jobs through these investments. Over the past four years, the program has been operating in various counties of Southern California with great success. Now, with San Francisco offering the program to their residents, other Northern California communities are making the program available to their residents. To further increase the expansion of this program, on August 24th the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) was directed by President Obama to allow properties to be purchased and refinanced with PACE loans when applying for an FHA-insured mortgage. The goal of making PACE loans more attainable is to inspire and create incentives for energy saving renovations nationwide.

HERO provides financing for a variety of energy saving products. The program offers a list of over 900,000 products they offer financing for on their web page.The process to apply for the program is simple. Applicants fill out required paperwork and select the energy saving renovations they desire along with a contractor. After the paperwork is signed and they are approved, the process begins. To offset the initial costs of renovations customers pay for the energy efficient improvements over time through their property taxes. Since 2011, $800 million in clean energy improvements have been made on approximately 35,000 homes. This program is expected to continually grow over the years and help save energy.

Commercial and residential properties both qualify for the program, for more information on what properties qualify visit the HERO webpage . The website has thorough explanations for their frequently asked questions and has additional information regarding how the program operates. Interested parties can also check out their vibrant YouTube Channel, which features many testimonials from happy applicants. Take a moment to review the full list of participating areas here.

Sources:

HERO

Federal Housing Administration Move on PACE Showcases Program’s Possible Impact