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SFRealEstateBuzz: Stupid Dog Owners

Hello My Favorite People!

In This Buzz:

  • The Cautionary Corollary of Interest Rates
  • Attention au Chien Mechant!
  • SF’s Buckets of Weirdness

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The Great Rate Race

There’s been all kinds of chatter how rising interest rates have been affecting the market. This series of charts drills down a bit into how and why of it. But let’s start with a bird’s eye view:

This first chart is just for single family homes statewide.

Overall, the California Association of Realtors (CAR) paints a relatively rosy picture for our Golden State. Do not ask me what the “lock-in effect” is. I do not know the answer.

CAR’s story for San Francisco houses all by themselves is more of a mixed bag:

Our median price went up a notch between May and June but is down from this time last year. On the plus side, we only have a two-month supply of inventory. That indicates a robust level of trading among the homes that are available.

Another reason for the drop in median price is a slowing of the luxury market. I talked about this in my last newsletter. Any drop in sales on the high-end will always push the median down. The luxury market is also more affected by rising interest rates. I’ll get to that in a moment.

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These next two charts will show a direct correlation between interest rates and market activity.

Let’s start with the interest rates. This chart runs 18 months back to December of 2021.

The New York Times reported recently on a new phenomenon called “rate envy.” Those of you who bought or refinanced at the end of 2021 have lots to gloat about at cocktail parties.

Now let’s see how the changes in rates over time have affected the market.

This chart runs back 24 months, so if you want to compare, you should start six months in on this chart. Or you can just get the Cliff Notes below:

Our first series of rate hikes first series of rate hikes began in late December of 2021- which led to a median price plunge at the beginning of 2022. Then buyers rushed back into the market to take advantage of still-cheap money. This made the median bounce back and continue climbing all the way through April of 2022.

A bigger market adjustment started in March 2022 when rates accelerated rapidly from under 4% to nearly 6% over a 60-day period. That lead to a steep price decline in starting in May before leveling out towards December of 2022.

This year we enjoyed a robust Q1 following a mild rate drop at the end of 2022. The market has slowed considerably since then but the good news is that rates have stayed steady in the 6.5-6.75% range for a few months now. That’s uncomfortably high compared to just two years ago, but can also even out the market, as current Buyers know they can close escrow thirty days later at the price they qualified for.

So don’t expect bargain prices right now. Homes are selling on average 103% of list price, and half our listings go above asking. This indicates a healthy market with multiple offers for homes that are strategically priced below their target selling price.

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When Idiot Dog Owners Spoil It For Everyone Else

There was a time in the early 2000s when some HOAs would allow dogs, but prohibit “aggressive breeds.” A a list provided by the CDC at the time included popular breeds like German Shepherds, American Pit Bulls and Akitas.

The restriction stems from a tragedy that happened in 2000- when a young woman named Diane Whipple was attacked and killed by two Presa Canarios in the hallway of her Pacific Heights apartment building. The dogs’ caretakers did prison time and the whole City was done in by the tragedy.

The backstory on the dogs’ caretakers is stranger than fiction, and includes a dog-fighting ring run out of a prison and an adult adoption of convicted felon. Then again it all sort of falls into the bucket of weirdness we used to have around San Francisco, like a mayor doing an in-person radio interview while taking a shower or a cop who walked around North Beach with a ventriloquist doll.

“There are just three big cities in the United States that are “story cities’ – New York, of course, New Orleans, and, best of the lot, San Francisco- Frank Norris

I obviously love running down internet rabbit holes about this kind of stuff. And San Francisco offers great fodder. There’s always a good story to tell, and some days the City can feel like a giant village full of gossip. Wanna contribute? Tell me something you remember, or send over a weird story of your own. I love a good yarn!

Best to you!

Cece

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Cece Blase

Vantage Realty

580 4th Street

San Francisco, CA 94107

Direct 415-577-0809

Fax 415.738.7264

Mobile 415.577.0809

cece@sfrealestatebuzz.com

facebook.com/sfrealestatebuzz

instagram.com/sfrealestatebuzz

License #00926690

Cece Blase
Compass Real Estate
415-577-0809
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