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What a Median Priced SF Home Looks Like…

Hello My Favorite People!

In This Buzz:

  • Where’s the Market REALLY Going?
  • What a Mid-Range House Looks Like in San Francisco?
  • And a Word from Ang Lee



It’s the Interest Rates, Stupid:

Late last month the California Association of Realtors released an economic forecast for 2024. Here’s their prediction, in a nutshell.

California’s housing market will rebound in 2024 as mortgage rates ebb.* With the economy expected to soften in 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank will begin loosening its monetary policy next year. Mortgage rates will trend down throughout 2024, and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage could reach the mid-5% range by the end of next year.”

*I think the word “ebb” looks a little lonely without its friend “flow.” Anyone else feel the same way?

For now, I’m seeing buyers settle in to our current world of 7% rates with a plan to refi after rates drop. This is a reasonable strategy based on the “rate ebb” theory. I think getting all the way back to 5% seems a tad optimistic, but every little bit helps: A drop from 7% to 6% on a fixed $1M loan saves $660 a month. Get the rate back down to 5%, and the monthly cost is almost $1300 less than what it is today.

Statewide, California’s median home prices are forecast to climb 6% in 2024.Which leads to a discussion of. . .


What’s Median Priced Home Look Like, Anyway?

Quick definition review: “Median” is the home sale smack dab in the middle of the high and low of your range. As of last week, YTD there were 967 sales in San Francisco. Halfway down the list, in 482nd place, is a three-way tie at $1,570,000 between 1271 37th2527 Moraga and 705 Peru.

Because those may not be the neighborhoods you are precisely aiming for, here are examples of homes in the median range for two of our most popular neighborhoods: Noe Valley and Pacific Heights:


Median price for a Noe Valley house: $2,295,000.

4371 23rd Street closed for $2,295,000 this past August. With only 2+BR/1.5BA and 1785 square feet this can seem like a pretty rich price, but the home showed to perfection in spite of its slightly dated kitchen and baths. There’s also a modest room downstairs plus basement that might offer expansion potential.

The only negatives are a parking pad (instead of a garage) and a yard well below the main level of the house. This can make climbing down there a pain, but may be worth it for the greenhouse that awaits your orchid collection.

View Property

Median price for a Noe Valley Condo: 1,475,000.

4027 23rd Street closed for $1,475,000 price on August 21. With 3BR/2BA/1PKG and 1,822 square feet, the fundamentals check most boxes, with good square footage and Arts and Crafts details like a tile fireplace and exposed wood trim and built-ins.

The home needs some work but the fundamentals make it better than 4371 23rd Street- except that it’s a lower floor condo and you have people walking up above you. The room down also has lower ceilings, but still easily work as a guest suite or home office.

4027 23rd Street

View Property

Median price for a Pacific Heights house: $5,950,000.

2405 Washington closed for $5,950,000 on March 22. This 5BR/4BA, 3,878 square feet home just gets better and better as you go through it. This home also has the perfect “unicorn” layout with four bedrooms and two baths all on the same level.

My only quibble is the long journey down from the main level to the yard below. This drawback is offset, however, by a large entertainment room with its own bath and kitchen that opens directly onto it.

View Property


Median price for a Pacific Heights condo: $1,550,000.

1940 Sacramento closed for $1,550,000 at the beginning of this year. This home is about square footage. There’s 1700 square feet of it here spread out across three bedrooms and two baths. The proportion and scale of the rooms scream elegance and it’s also in an intimate six-unit building, which many prefer.

The drawbacks are no yard and no parking. I think I might be able to live with both of those things since Lafayette Park is less than a block away, and the Van Ness Corridor buses are just down the street. Have you ridden one of those buses lately? They will get you from one end of Van Ness to the other much faster than a car.

View Property
“San Francisco is one of my favorite cities in the world… It’s small but photogenic and has layers…You never have problems finding great angles that people have never done.”

– Film Director Ang Lee*

Screw the doom loop! Our views and beauty will always make my heart soar. So does my ever expanding circle of clients (and agents!) who send me new business. Special props this week to The Gunderman Group (and their smart sartorial sense), Lee Ziff (a new-found treasure), and Sarah Ridge (an expert on motherhood as well as real estate). Thank you all for continuing to remember me for any San Francisco buyer or seller in need of a smart agent with a good head on her shoulders.

Cheers to all! Here’s to a great fall!


*Ang Lee fell in love with SF when he filmed “The Incredible Hulk” here in 2003.

Cece Blase

Vantage Realty

580 4th Street

San Francisco, CA 94107

Direct 415-577-0809

Fax 415.738.7264

Mobile 415.577.0809




License #00926690

Cece Blase
Compass Real Estate
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