Case-Shiller: a longer-term look

While we’ve noticed a trend of flattening or ticking down slightly amongst the highest-priced homes in San Francisco, the Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metro Area also notes that many neighborhoods in the city are blowing right past their previous high prices.

Before we get into that, though, it’s worth mentioning that the index is published two months after the month in question (this month being September 2014, and the release date was November 25) and thus always reflects the market of a few months earlier.

The chart that accompanies this article illustrates the price recovery of the Bay Area high-price-tier market over the past year as well as since 2012 as that is when the market recovery really began in earnest. During both 2012 and 2013, spring saw home prices surge and then plateau during the summer and autumn months. We saw a particularly dramatic surge in prices during the spring of 2013; this was reflective of pent-up buyer demand as well as historically low interest rates, an increase in consumer confidence and rock-bottom inventory.

While the market calmed down during the second half of 2013, it heated back up in early 2014. Behind this lay an expanding population and the high-tech-fueled explosion of new wealth, as we had seen the previous year. We’ve seen many neighborhoods, including the Bayview and Bernal Heights, experience skyrocketing prices in the face of all this activity.

That said, the luxury market shows a little bit of cooling. We may expect to see more of that in the next Case-Shiller Index, which will be released at year’s-end and will start reflecting the autumn-season sales negotiated in September and closing in October.

Stay tuned.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com