Case-Shiller Index for October
The new Case-Shiller Index report for October was just released. Many news articles are trumpeting that prices declined in “19 out of 20 US Metro Areas,” however while the aggregate Index for the 5-County San Francisco Metro Statistical Area did indeed decline very slightly in October (by about half of one percent), the Case-Shiller High Tier Price Index for the SF Metro Area, which is the Index which best applies to the city of San Francisco itself actually ticked up a little in October.
The Case-Shiller High Tier Index applies to house sales of about $600,000 and above. In the 8 northern and central districts of the city, the median house sales price for non-distress houses is well over $800,000. Indeed, if there was an “Upper High Tier Index” for SF alone, I suspect we would see an even larger uptick in prices. It’s been very consistent in the city, Bay Area, state and country that lower price homes have been affected much more negatively than higher price homes.
As always, our full article on Case-Shiller is here: http://www.paragon-re.com/postings/Case_Shiller_San_Francisco_MSA.html
For the record, tiny monthly fluctuations must be considered within any reasonable margin of error and are essentially meaningless. What is important is the consistent, longer-term trend.