Case-Shiller reveals trends for San Francisco, Bay Area in general

The new Case-Shiller numbers are out for June, and can you guess what they reveal? Take a wild guess … okay, I’ll tell you. We’ve got some accelerating prices on properties, folks, and if you haven’t figured that one out, you probably should have.

First, a little primer on Case-Shiller: it covers the house markets of five Bay Area counties, divided into three price tiers, each constituting one third of unit sales. Most of San Francisco’s (as well as Marin and San Mateo’s) house sales are in the high-price tier, so this is where we focus most of our attention. The index is published two months after the month in question and reflects a three-month rolling average, so it will always reflect the market of some months ago. What I’m saying is this: take it with a grain of salt.

Typically, the market cools off and plateaus for the summer months – that’s what we’ve seen in the new Case-Shiller numbers for June. However, if you look at the chart accompanying this article, you’ll see that accelerating prices have been the norm ever since the recovery began in earnest in 2012.

So what does the future seem to hold? We’re going to see another big indication of market conditions and trends in terms of the autumn selling season, which starts mid-next month That’s typically when there is a large surge in new listings and buyer demand picks up again until the holiday slowdown begins in mid-November.

In terms of the high-price home segment for the San Francisco metro area, there was no real significant change from May to June, although the low- and mid-priced segments both ticked up by a percentage point or two. However, it’s worth remembering that short-term fluctuations are much less meaningful than longer-term trends.

Specific questions? Give me a call.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email cblase@paragon-re.com. www.ceceblase.com