How does the market look three years into recovery?

Happy New Year! We’re now in 2015, a full three years into the market recovery in San Francisco. So how are things looking? To answer that question, Paragon has drafted a report titled “Three years into the market recovery: San Francisco real estate as 2015 begins.”

The first two charts that accompany this article provide insight into the last 30 years of real estate cycles along with comparing percentage appreciation during the first three years of recent market recoveries. Appreciation since 2012 has gone on more quickly than the other recoveries since 1980 – however, it is also coming off a far larger crash than previous cycles.

Another accompanying chart graphs the quarterly path of median house price appreciation in San Francisco since 2012. This is an illustration of shorter-term seasonal cycles, which while interesting and informative, are second to longer-term trends. Condo prices showed a similar trajectory, while at somewhat lower values. During the most recent quarter, the median condo price was just a hair under $1 million.

The remaining two charts are excerpted from Paragon’s updated analysis of What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco and are meant as a general guide for buyers as to where to find the most choice of home listing in their price range, along with opening them up to neighborhoods they might not previously have considered.

We’re also finding that, over the past three years, the luxury home market is kicking the overall market in the pants as wealth dramatically surges across the Bay Area. Over the last decade and a half, we’ve seen the high-end market segment move from the typically wealthy areas of the city (think Pacific Heights and Russian Hill) to other districts including those surrounding Noe Valley and South Beach.

More tomorrow.

Dreaming of San Francisco? Cece Blase offers local advice to San Francisco buyers, sellers and owners– and feeds the dreams of those who wish they could live in Tony Bennett’s ‘City by the Bay.’ Call 415-577-0809 or email

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