| Hello My Favorite People! In This Buzz: - Where’s the Market REALLY Going?
- What a Mid-Range House Looks Like in San Francisco?
- And a Word from Ang Lee
*********** It’s the Interest Rates, Stupid: Late last month the California Association of Realtors released an economic forecast for 2024. Here’s their prediction, in a nutshell. California’s housing market will rebound in 2024 as mortgage rates ebb.* With the economy expected to soften in 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank will begin loosening its monetary policy next year. Mortgage rates will trend down throughout 2024, and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage could reach the mid-5% range by the end of next year.” *I think the word “ebb” looks a little lonely without its friend “flow.” Anyone else feel the same way? For now, I’m seeing buyers settle in to our current world of 7% rates with a plan to refi after rates drop. This is a reasonable strategy based on the “rate ebb” theory. I think getting all the way back to 5% seems a tad optimistic, but every little bit helps: A drop from 7% to 6% on a fixed $1M loan saves $660 a month. Get the rate back down to 5%, and the monthly cost is almost $1300 less than what it is today. Statewide, California’s median home prices are forecast to climb 6% in 2024.Which leads to a discussion of. . . ************** What’s Median Priced Home Look Like, Anyway? Quick definition review: “Median” is the home sale smack dab in the middle of the high and low of your range. As of last week, YTD there were 967 sales in San Francisco. Halfway down the list, in 482nd place, is a three-way tie at $1,570,000 between 1271 37th, 2527 Moraga and 705 Peru. Because those may not be the neighborhoods you are precisely aiming for, here are examples of homes in the median range for two of our most popular neighborhoods: Noe Valley and Pacific Heights: ************** Median price for a Noe Valley house: $2,295,000. 4371 23rd Street closed for $2,295,000 this past August. With only 2+BR/1.5BA and 1785 square feet this can seem like a pretty rich price, but the home showed to perfection in spite of its slightly dated kitchen and baths. There’s also a modest room downstairs plus basement that might offer expansion potential. The only negatives are a parking pad (instead of a garage) and a yard well below the main level of the house. This can make climbing down there a pain, but may be worth it for the greenhouse that awaits your orchid collection. | 
